In the ever-evolving landscape of American politics, the question looms large: what happens to conservatism if Donald Trump secures another term?
The prevailing sentiment among traditional conservatives is one of discomfort, as they grapple with the reality that Trump's brand of politics may very well define the right for the foreseeable future.
Noah Rothman, a writer for the National Review, suggests that Trump seems to be gaining momentum in the race, potentially leading him to an Electoral College majority.
But how reliable are these projections?
Polling data can often be misleading, especially in such a tight race.
Any fluctuations might simply stem from sampling errors rather than genuine shifts in voter sentiment.
Nonetheless, the current indicators point to Trump having a significant edge as the election approaches.
If Kamala Harris's turnout efforts in swing states fail to deliver, it could pave the way for Trump to claim victory once again.
The stakes are undeniably high, and the implications for American conservatism are profound.
Should Trump win, the future of conservative ideology appears bleak.
A generation of voters may grow accustomed to both parties promising increased spending without considering the consequences.
This trend could solidify a norm where fiscal responsibility takes a backseat to populist appeals, leaving traditional conservatives anxious about the direction of their party.
It raises the question: will they have to accept this new reality?
Adding to the drama, John Kelly, Trump's former chief of staff, has publicly labeled Trump a “fascist” and deemed him unfit for office.
In any previous election cycle, such statements would likely have sent shockwaves through a candidate's campaign.
However, in today's political climate, does it carry the same weight?
Many believe it doesn't.
Kelly's remarks echo sentiments that have circulated since 2020, and seasoned political observers recognize that Trump's affinity for authoritarian leaders is not news.
Trump's tendency to admire strongmen is well-documented.
He openly expresses admiration for figures like Putin and Erdogan, which many voters have come to expect.
Kelly's claims, including a troubling comparison to Hitler, might not sway the Republican base, who tend to compartmentalize such criticisms.
They often dismiss character flaws if they believe Trump will deliver on their priorities.
If Trump does secure a second term, he will join Grover Cleveland as the only U.S. president to serve two non-consecutive terms.
Yet, this scenario poses significant challenges for conservatives.
Trump's lack of concern for the national debt and budget deficits is alarming, particularly as the national debt surpasses 100% of GDP.
His plans to increase spending could further strain fiscal stability, leaving conservatives grappling with the consequences.
The current economic landscape is precarious.
America has long thrived as the world's reserve currency, but Trump's proposed global tariffs could threaten that status.
Historically, Congress has delegated significant power to the presidency regarding tariffs, and if Republicans regain control, they may increasingly align with Trump's vision, further eroding traditional conservative values.
Interestingly, the Republican base hasn't fully embraced the national populist agenda.
While there is a strong desire to curb illegal immigration, support for legal immigration remains intact.
Polling indicates that many Republicans fear government intervention in the marketplace more than they do the market itself, suggesting that core Reagan-era principles still resonate within the party.
Despite Trump's overwhelming influence, the essence of conservatism—free-market principles and a cautious approach to government spending—persists beneath the surface.
However, Trump's dominance has undeniably reshaped the Republican Party, and the long-term effects of his leadership remain uncertain.
With each passing year, the party risks losing its foundational ideals.
As we consider the potential fallout from the upcoming election, the possibility of Trump losing presents an intriguing opportunity for traditional conservatives.
Would a second defeat signal a chance to reclaim the party?
History suggests that expectations for a swift return to pre-Trump norms may be overly optimistic.
The political landscape has shifted dramatically, and those hoping for a return to traditional conservatism might find themselves disappointed.
Ultimately, what American conservatism lacks today are strong advocates willing to champion its principles with confidence and vigor.
The path forward is fraught with challenges, and as the party navigates this tumultuous terrain, the need for clear voices advocating for conservative values has never been more pressing.
It remains to be seen whether the Republican Party can reconcile its past with its present and forge a coherent future.
